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What do you see the biggest constraint in "why is there no climate adaption coming"?

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@woodbark the belief that less stuff, or less oil, or degrowth in general, has to mean a lower quality of life.

@redoak How do you come to that conclusion regarding this constraint?

@woodbark this is not my position; it's an implicit belief in the US at least, though, as a corollary to "more/bigger/newer things is better"

@redoak I did not take that as your position.

But I believe it does not lead anywhere to take up the notion of "lower quality of life" to fight this perception bottle-neck.

Do you see ways to release some of that bottleneck function?

@woodbark so far the only ones i know are thoughtful conversation over time, and willingness to experiment at setting an example. i don't know of any "scalable" answers and i'm not even sure such a thing can exist; 'scalability' as a value cannot, as far as i can tell, be disentangled from modern extractive capitalism.

@woodbark
Well in Scotland's case there's a perception in the NE of Scotland in particular that pulling more oil and gas is needed to build Scotland's future as an independent nation. It's a generational thing. Public political pressure needs to increase to push for climate adaptation. Particularly for the coastal regions. I suspect some people are overconfident in humanity's ability to engineer our way out of issues.

@onepict Is there a public debate about what this digging off carbon budget is invested in in sense of "future proofing the nation"?

@woodbark
The idea was to use the oil fund to transition when it runs out. Now Alec Salmond (used to be an oil industry economist) is reacting to the First Minister being in opposition to the new proposed Cambo field. https://www.albaparty.org/scotlands-oil-fired-engine-of-independence

@woodbark
Aberdeen is planning for renewable transition, but TBH it's been doing that for the last 20 years at least. As long as there's somewhere in the world in the ground to pull oil out of, the city will have its workforce involved. This is despite the fact that Every time there's a down town the city suffers massive layoffs which affects the local economy. It's boom and bust.

@woodbark
Argh downturn even. But it affects everything including property rentals and purchasing. When there's a boom the city is full and rents are high. Plus it's a uni town, so we now have lots of commercial student rentals in the city. The bust was waiting to happen.

@woodbark
I don't agree with the Alba party for several reasons, oil and party related. There's a generational disconnect about this in Scotland, but it's also geographical in relation to how the local economy benefits from Oil and Gas. There's also a slight correlation with unionism in certain areas of Scotland as well. Although they are an aging demographic.

@onepict a lot of coastal towns and municipalities around Europe are heavily intertwined with Oil and gas economics.

Any Idea of how to cut the cord?

@woodbark
🤔Having worked in the industry, I'm not sure. I think workers are willing and there are some renewable businesses. But the major oil and gas folks still rule. Plus Scotland is still a part of the UK and the licensing for exploration are still done from London. Carbon capture and injection to pull more out will also extends the lifetime of fields. We need indy to make those decisions.

@woodbark
But there is research and development going into wind and wave. The wave power if the generators can survive the seas would be good for power generation. But we also need a decent telecommunications infrastructure to the whole of Scotland. So that a more services oriented economy could be sustainable and spread out.

@woodbark
As for the entwined economic routes from Rotterdam, stavanger etc that will take more thought. Although often that tends to be materials to sustain and repair existing installations. But renewable installations will have similar needs. Plus Scotland needs its own ferry routes etc.

@woodbark
Broadband infrastructure is reserved to Westminster. Now most Scots know this. So when the Unionist politicians try to accusé the Scottish Government of not rolling out BB folks know they are being economical with the truth. I think the Scottish population has more of a chance of being willing to entertain climate adaptation. But as long as Scotland isn't independent, we suffer at the whims of Westminster policy.

@woodbark
That's even before you consider the seabed offshore from the UK belongs to the Crown Estate. So windfarms will be paying rent to the Royal family, which adds complexity to the Indy and climate debate.

@woodbark
You also have resistance because there are now 2 to 3 generations of people who work in the Oil and Gas Industry in the UK. Who got used to the oil will run out in 30 years argument, meanwhile they got a bit more out of the fields. When my Dad worked in it the max you got out of a field was 40 percent of the field. Then it's uneconomic to recover, but the tech gets better and the oil is still there....

@woodbark
People think of oil as an underground lake, but its more like an aerobar with the oil in the holes.

So you have these oil fields deep in the ground and you have to drill through rock even when you reach the oil level. The industry recovery technology and techniques are all about improving extraction. Because most fields in the 1980s had 40 percent as the most efficient extraction.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Aero_(chocolate_bar)

@woodbark The biggest constraint is the inertia of capital flow from fossil fuels, which are still immensely profitable. People who are benefiting from oil and gas industries are obviously exceedingly unwilling to change course or support anything which reduces dependency on fossil fuel.

@bob I believe it is not only capital flow but also related tech.path dependency: I.e. more than 80% of global textile production is based completely on fossil fuels (not only in transportation, but plastics from FF make at least 45% of base materials for clothing)

@woodbark @bob Also a lot of synthetic fertilizer requires fossil fuel input. So many things regarded as being critical are very dependent on fossil fuel and changing that isn't going to be easy. Politicians and farmers generally want the easiest solutions.

Another factor is that significant amounts of agricultural land in fertile delta areas are going to be lost to sea level rise in the coming decades.

@woodbark As the virologists say: there is no glory in prevention.

@woodbark The people with the most ability to do something about it are (largely) not answerable to the people most likely to be affected by it.

@alx What do you think could be the One thing, that elevates that constraint massively?

@woodbark I don't know that there's One thing, but self-interest (at all levels from individuals right up to the nation state) is definitely a big factor.

@woodbark

Consumers, businesses, government are all blaming each other, passing the buck to each other. Either corner of that blame triangle *could* theoretically pull the breaks. Of the three, the corner that's would have the easiest time doing so is government. Ergo we need legislation that goes way beyond Paris agreement.

@Sandra
We also know that government is politically sensitive to lobbyists and donors.

We need to put pressure on our elected reps. It has to be constant and we need to persuade everyone to keep the pressure on those reps. Then be prepared and organised to vote those reps out. Which also means support for those that would be disenfranchised.
@woodbark

@onepict
Right. Governments have a lot to lose in terms of career stuff and donations (bribes) for fighting against climate change.
But, less than business (who mistakenly kid themselves into benefitting from externalities is a good thing) and consumers (who are gonna shop til we drop). And, while government is heterogenous and sprawling and in-fighting, so are businesses and consumers to an even larger extent.

If humanity is gonna come together to fight this, govt is our best bet. I know ansoc is all about the organizational kumbaya and that's awesome, I'm behind it all the way, but, coming together through and with govt is prob a good idea.

As far as putting pressure on them… that's fine in a prop rep system like UK or Swe, but the American executive branch is first past the post. It's a mathematical fact that Americans need to vote for the lesser evil or we'll face a GOPocalypse. As awful as Biden's admin is.

That's why getting money out of politics, and election reform, is a form of climate work. We need to root out corruption and lobbyism.

@woodbark

@Sandra @onepict @woodbark I do like arguing for the ansoc angle without opposing the established govt angle though.

Community organisation doesn't need to rely as much on carrots and sticks...

@alcinnz @Sandra @onepict @woodbark

Scotland uses a form of proportional representation, but not Westminster, which is first past the post.

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